by Katrina Bushko –
Ukrainians have been very vocal since mid-November, and for good reason. After months of negotiations towards signing an agreement about trade and political cooperation with the European Union—a possible step towards EU membership– Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych took two steps back, refusing to sign the treaty. Instead, Yanukovych turned to Russia for financial support. Yanukovych had been “shopping around” to see which alliance—one with Russia, or one with the EU— would benefit Ukraine more in terms of debt-repayment; as former U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine Steven Pifer puts it, the president has picked the short-term Russian solution over the long-term EU resolution. The agreement with Russia promises a $15 billion investment to reduce government debt and a slashing of Russian gas prices by one-third. Although the surrender of some Ukrainian gas pipelines may have been a stipulation of the Russian agreement, it is a seemingly small concession for Yanukovych, especially when compared to the EU conditions of a reformed democracy and the fair treatment of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
As for the actual protests, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have taken to the streets in Kiev in opposition to this controversial move by President Yanukovych, and some have turned violent. The political movement Maidan—named for Maidan Nezalezhnosti, or Independence Square, in Kiev where most protests are being held—has formed into a daunting political bloc. This alliance has no unified leadership, but is being co-chaired by Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the Nationalist Party; Vitaly Klichko, leader of the UDAR Party; and Arseny Yatsenyuk and Yulia Tymoshenko, leaders of the Batkivshchyna Party [UK].
As a result of this decision, President Yanukovych will continue to face severe political backlash in the year to come. His chief of administration and several of his party’s MPs have already resigned and joined the opposition, which does not bode well for his political clout in 2014— or his chances for reelection in 2015. If the opposition bloc can come up with a single leader and a unified platform against Yanukovych, the President may be forced to resign. However, even though Yanukovych has already made a deal with Russia, he could dampen the repercussions by refusing to join the Eurasian Customs Union, which already includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and the possible addition of Armenia. Finally, with the EU invitation still open, the Ukrainian president would be foolish not to listen to the Ukrainian people in 2014.