by Jessica Mulligan –
Author’s Note: The following content contains careful research, unsubstantiated analysis, overreaching generalizations, and a sprinkling of satire.
Races to Watch
Texas Governor
Wendy Davis (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R)
Credit: Guardian Liberty Voice (left) & Texas Tribune (right)
On June 25, 2013, Davis held an eleven-hour-long filibuster to block passage of a bill that would further restrict abortion rights for Texas women. Her pink running shoes became an icon for feminists and liberals across the country, and with the momentum of her rising star power, she announced her candidacy for the Texas governor’s race in October of 2013. Her opponent, Greg Abbott, served as Texas’s Attorney General since 2002, and on Texas’s Supreme Court from 1995 to 2002. The incumbent governor, Rick Perry (R), is not running for a fourth term.
Credit: AP Photo/Eric Gay
Will Davis’s national support from lefties like Elizabeth Warren help her win over one of the reddest states of all? Yeah, well, this liberal, feminist, Ivy League student who grew up in the People’s Republic of Cambridge (yours truly) remains hopeful.
Latest polls: Abbott + 15 over Davis (PPP, November 5, 2013) / Abbott +6 over Davis (UT/Texas Tribune, November 5, 2013)
My prediction: The Dems care way more about this race than the Repubs. She’s got this. Maybe not in the bag, but she’s got it.
Kentucky Senator
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) vs. Mitch McConnell (R)
Credit: AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley (left), The Impolitic (right)
Mitch McConnell has served in the Senate since 1985, and as Senate Minority Leader since 2007. In the past year, he has made headlines several times as the member with the lowest job approval ratings in the Senate. We also have to consider, however, that polling agencies are more likely to run surveys on high-ranking Congressmen than the average member, so these low approval ratings may be blown out of proportion in the media—perhaps he is not facing such a uphill battle, after all.
Grimes, on the other hand, has only served in public office since 2012, as the Secretary of State of Kentucky. Before that, she had pursued a successful career as a lawyer. Will she have enough political experience to succeed in running against one of the most prominent, longstanding, and (perhaps) unpopular members of the Senate?
Credit: Five Thirty Eight Blog/NY Times.
Latest poll: McConnell +1 over Grimes (PPP, December 17, 2013)
My prediction: The question is: is this a “can’t-lose” election for Grimes, or is McConnell’s unpopularity blown out of proportion? The fact is, Kentucky’s red-state reputation has been a bit exaggerated with McConnell and Rand Paul as its two senators: in fact, 57% of the state’s voters are registered as Democrats, and only 37% as Republicans. So if Grimes can garner an solid level of fundraising and strategic support, I predict that she will have it in the bag. On the other hand, name recognition is huge. Without a huge advertising and GOTV push for Grimes, the obstructionism that we associate with McConnell’s name will not serve him as badly as we might think.
So…let’s get it together, Dems.
2016 Predictions
We’ve been talking about it since 2009, so who really cares if the actual election isn’t for another three years?
My prediction: Ron & Rand Paul father-son matchup trumps Hillary Clinton & Kathleen Sebelius team until October 1, when Hillary announces that she will be finally divorcing Bill over his alleged affair with the Healthcare.gov cover girl, and Sebelius officially endorses the Paul/Paul Health Care Solution for a Better Future. The poll numbers flip, and the Clinton/Sebelius team win handily.
Thats all, folks! The PPN staff wishes you all the best for 2014.