The past few weeks have seen a whirlwind of updates in the seemingly endless turmoil of the Israeli elections this year. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the main opposition leader Benny Gantz failed to establish a governing coalition after the second election of the year, and the country is preparing for a third now. To further complicate the situation, Netanyahu was indicted on corruption charges on November 21st.
The chaos of recent Israeli politics has left many wondering why the country has fallen into this situation, how the legal processes behind this work, and what could be next.
Israel’s first elections of the year were originally scheduled to take place this November, when Netanyahu’s fourth term as Prime Minister would finish. However, early elections were called in April. This can be attributed to a few reasons. His administration cited differences within the governing coalition over military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews; however, it is notable that an investigation had been recently opened into Netanyahu for potential bribery and breach of trust charges, opening the possibility that he maneuvering to get ahead of any indictments that might come his way.
From the exit polls, the April election appeared very close, and both sides naturally claimed victory. Likud and Blue and White, the parties of Netanyahu and Gantz respectively, received 35 seats each. However, Netanyahu was eventually decided to be in a stronger position to form a coalition, and Gantz conceded. It was reported in many publications that he had won the election.
On May 29th, in an unprecedented twist, Netanyahu revealed that he had failed to assemble a government, the first time in Israeli history that such a situation had occurred. Negotiations faltered due to conflict with Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the secular right-wing nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party. Despite only having five seats, the party became the deciding factor in the election.
After this, Benny Gantz could have been appointed the next prime minister-designate and given the same opportunity. Instead, parliament voted to dissolve itself, forcing a new round of elections on September 17th and denying Gantz that opportunity.
The September election showed similar results to its predecessor, with Blue and White very slightly ahead of Likud in exit polling. The former party ended up with 33 seats to the latter’s 32, but the first shot at forming a coalition still went to Netanyahu.
Some analysts have suggested that Gantz may have wanted to allow Netanyahu to go before him, as with there already being a failed attempt to create a government, he could have increased bargaining power in the following negotiations.
Netanyahu’s second attempt at a coalition also failed, and once again, Lieberman was key in denying him a right-wing coalition. He also attempted a unity government, but the conservative Likud could not come to an agreement with the liberal Gantz, and the initiative passed to the latter politician.
As Gantz attempted to get his majority, a new wrinkle was introduced with an ultimatum from Lieberman. He has previously pledged to only support a unity government, but on November 9th he announced that if either Netanyahu or Gantz did not commit to compromise in a unity government, he would ally Yisrael Beiteinu with the other candidate. Lieberman especially emphasized avoiding another election.
Unfortunately, when Gantz time to form a coalition ended eleven days later, a legislative majority still eluded him. He and Netanyahu held talks for a unity government in a last ditch effort to avoid a third election, but ultimately failed. In this new round, polling shows that the Blue and White party appears to again have a slight edge over Likud, and both sides would still need the support of Yisrael Beiteinu for a coalition. The possibility for an outcome very similar to that of the past two is strong.
The very next day, Israel’s Attorney General, Avichai Mandelblit, announced that Netanyahu was being indicted on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. The cases against the Prime Minister involved allegations of him offering and giving favors in his governmental capacity to various prominent media magnates in exchange for favorable coverage or expensive gifts.
In addition to the challenges this creates for Israel’s democracy, with the top prosecutor and premier of the country at legal odds, this event could damage Netanyahu. Despite his fervent protests, including proclaiming an attempted coup and calling to “investigate the investigators,” an ongoing criminal case could damage him when Israel’s citizens next go to the polls.
Israel’s electoral future is uncertain, with no clear path out of the current political deadlock. The eventual outcome of this election, though, has very important ramifications. Within Israel, this is a test of whether the country wants to continue down Netanyahu’s right-wing path, or if they are ready for a transition to a more moderate to liberal government.
The impact of this election on Palestinian natives could be great. A Gantz led government, which would likely include the Arab party Joint List, would be much more amenable to compromise and cooperation on that front than Netanyahu’s administration has been.
In an international context, the Israeli Prime Minister has an important influence in the Middle East. Whether that seat is filled by Netanyahu or Gantz will affect the policy of the United States and other global powers, as well as what they will be able to get done in the region. This reaches to critical issues, such as Russian influence in the Middle East and conflict with Iran.
Israel’s current political situation is both complicated and unprecedented. This election may be more strongly contested than any in Israeli history. Will Netanyahu receive a record fifth term? Or will Israel choose a new leader for the first time in over a decade?
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